From Horoscopes to Hard Data: The Evolution of Great Hiring

This was the hiring mandate an HR director once gave to me during my recruitment agency days. The director rejected candidates because their zodiac signs “conflicted with the horoscope of the company’s Managing Director.” Back then, recruitment was more of an “art form”. Or maybe even a bit of "voodoo science.”

Fortunately, recruitment practices have evolved from horoscope compatibility to scientific, data-driven processes. 

At our recent Science of Great Hiring: Turning Potential into Performance event in Singapore, three APAC talent leaders — Kenneth Koo (Director, Talent Acquisition, Singapore & Executive Hiring Lead (Asia) at Micron Technology), Amanda Dew (Group Director, Talent Acquisition & DEI at PropertyGuru Group), and Jay Huang (Co-founder & CEO at Pulsifi) shared how they’re using talent acquisition analytics, behavioral science, and skills-first models to move past gut feelings and toward predictable, data-backed hiring success.

I had the privilege of moderating this conversation, and here’s what stood out:  

The one metric that truly matters

To kick things off, I started with a rather provocative question for our panelists: 

Their answers revealed how the right metric is chosen based on organizational pace and priorities: 

Koo shared that he tracks first-year retention rate at Micron. The company has five generations in its workforce — and those born after 2000, Koo notes, are "more exploratory and adventurous." Retention isn't just about hiring quality anymore — it’s also how companies engage with their employees from day one. 

Dew takes a shorter approach, narrowing the retention period to three months. At PropertyGuru, employee impact is more important than tenure. They don’t just ask managers about how the employee performs. They gather 360-feedback from stakeholders, internal customers and peers. The key question, Dew explains: "Has this person really been able to get up to speed on their own?"

Huang focuses on culture fit. Role requirements change, so companies need “long-term talent, not role-specific talent”, he argues. He emphasizes, “Culture is the rules of the game. You want people that can play the game well.” Employees need to adapt as their role evolves. 

What you can do: Decide on the right retention timeframe for your company. Whether it’s three months or one year, match your retention KPI to your organization’s specific pace of change. Use a 360-feedback system to assess whether new employees are getting up to speed and making an impact. 

Moving beyond "average" time-to-fill

Dew explains that PropertyGuru cut its average time to hire in half from 100 days to 50 days — getting close to their 45-day target. 

But managers are less interested in averages. They’re more concerned about knowing when their specific role will be filled. Dew uses a cab ride analogy to make her point:

The Grab ride analogy resonated well with the audience — a familiar frustration transformed into a hiring insight. 

Having a fast recruitment process is good. But making it predictable and consistent is even better. PropertyGuru has shifted from measuring speed to measuring predictability and consistency. When PropertyGuru first started tracking, only 30% of managers received their new hire within the target timeframe. Now, it’s targeting 80% — acknowledging that executive hires, niche hires and difficult hires take longer but ensuring managers receive predictable and on-time hires. 

Dew also monitors second-year performance — when the true employee performance really starts to show. “If they do well, that’s a hiring success.” she notes. “If they don't, that was because they had a bad manager or there were other outcomes to it.” 

What you can do: Rather than just tracking average time to hire, measure the percentage of managers who receive their new hire on time. Set realistic targets and regularly update hiring managers. Track second year performance to connect hiring quality to business outcomes. 

The shift to "skills-first" organizations

"Being more skills-first allows us to potentially expand the talent pool," Koo says. 

He outlines Micron’s three-part approach to using a skills-first model: shifting left (engaging early through campus recruitment and secondary schools), building internal marketplaces (lowering barriers for skills-based internal mobility) and shifting right (using career conversion courses to make previously irrelevant candidates viable). 

Koo’s ultimate vision for a skills-based organization is holistic.

What you can do: Create a system where employees can see skill requirements for roles and evaluate their own proficiency gaps. Offer L&D courses to reskill employees. Partner with training providers to create career conversion programs for mid-career professionals from adjacent industries — expanding your external talent pool. 

Moving beyond gut feelings on culture

Huang’s approach to culture fit stood out for its specificity. At Pulsifi, they break culture down into competencies and specific behaviors.

He explains, "If a competency or a value is made up of five behaviors, and this person can ace those five behaviors, then we are trying to say it’s a good fit." By using organizational psychologists to model these behaviors, they move away from "I like this person" toward "This person fits our culture". 

Interestingly, Koo describes that at Micron (with 10,000 employees in Singapore alone), a single "culture" is hard to define. Instead, he prioritizes learning agility. "Cultures today can be one thing; tomorrow the culture can shift very quickly.” He adds “We hope that we get the agility to be adaptable to different environments.” 

What you can do: Articulate what cultural fit means. Break values into five or seven specific behaviors. If candidates can demonstrate most of those behaviors, then they’re fit regardless of background. For example, at Visier we have five core company values that are foundational to how we make decisions, how we work, and how we behave. (My personal favorite: Play to win!)

The human element in an AI world

When the discussion turned to AI, the panelists were unanimous: AI is complementary, not a replacement.

Koo noted that while technological skills can be automated and general skills augmented, human skills - specifically judgment - remain irreplaceable.

Dew highlighted the importance of choice in the candidate experience. Some may prefer an automated, fast-paced process like receiving updates via email.  Others need a human connection during significant moments, like receiving an offer or even a rejection. "It’s about having the opportunity to massively customize the way we deliver services,” she said. 

Huang closed the AI discussion by reminding the audience why we use these tools in the first place: "The whole reason why we are using all these AI tools is so that we have more time to spend with other human beings.” He illustrates how this applies to hiring.

What you can do: Categorize your hiring tasks: automate technological work (screening, scheduling), augment general tasks (data analysis), and protect human work (relationship-building, ethical decisions). Don't automate indiscriminately.

What’s next? Start with one shift. 

The science of great hiring doesn’t require flawless data or process. It requires workforce intelligence. 

The shift from horoscopes and gut feel means measuring predictability over speed, expanding talent pools through reskilling, defining culture fit with specific behaviors and using AI to handle manual tasks - freeing up time for building relationships and making ethical business decisions. 

Your hiring process doesn’t need to be perfect. Start with one shift. The rest will follow. 

Curious what metrics matter when looking for the right hires? Read '5 Core HR Metrics to Build a Strong People Data Foundation' to learn more.